Quantum Computers Will Break All Encryption Overnight

Quantum computers could theoretically factor large primes (RSA) and compute discrete logs (elliptic curve) exponentially faster than classical computers, but only error-corrected quantum computers with millions of stable qubits, not the hundreds-to-thousands of noisy qubits existing in 2024. Experts estimate practical cryptanalysis capabilities at 15–30 years minimum; NIST standardized post-quantum cryptography in 2022 (lattice and hash-based algorithms) that resists quantum and classical attacks. 'Harvest now, decrypt later' attacks (adversaries recording encrypted data to decrypt once quantum computers arrive) are genuine risks for long-lived secrets, but this affects state-level espionage, not routine users. The hype conflates theoretical quantum advantage with imminent deployment; near-term quantum computers will solve optimization and simulation problems, not factorization. Transition timelines allow gradual cryptographic migration. The apocalyptic framing drives funding and attention but misrepresents the timeline; responsible cryptographers are already preparing defences.